Siena Poll: Hochul Leads Blakeman by 20 Points; Majority of NY Voters Support Millionaire Tax in NYC

A majority of New York voters support allowing New York City to raise income taxes on residents earning at least $1 million, while Gov. Kathy Hochul maintains a sizable lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup, according to a new Siena College poll released Wednesday.

The survey found that 54% of New York voters support giving New York City the authority to raise taxes on millionaires, compared with 29% who oppose the proposal. Support is particularly strong among New York City voters (62%) and Democrats statewide (72%), while Republicans oppose the idea 51% to 36%.

The proposal has been championed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who argues that taxing the city’s wealthiest residents could help ease the burden on property owners and fund public priorities. However, the idea has received less enthusiasm outside the city, with upstate voters supporting the proposal 48% to 35% and voters in the downstate suburbs backing it 50% to 32%.

“As we enter budget month for the state, neither Hochul nor either house of the Legislature has indicated public support for Mamdani’s request,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Yet the public is on Mamdani’s side, as the proposal is supported 54–29 percent among all voters statewide.”

Hochul Maintains Double-Digit Lead

The poll also shows Hochul maintaining a 20-point lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with 51% of voters saying they would vote for Hochul compared with 31% for Blakeman. That margin is narrower than January’s survey, when Hochul led by 26 points, 54% to 28%.

Greenberg said the tightening race reflects Republicans consolidating support behind Blakeman and shifts among some voter groups.

“Democrats still outnumber Republicans more than two-to-one, so it’s not surprising to see Hochul maintain a large double-digit lead,” Greenberg said. “But the race has tightened a little in the last month.”

Hochul’s favorability rating now stands at 46% favorable to 42% unfavorable, slightly down from 49–40% in January, while 53% of voters approve of the job she is doing as governor, essentially unchanged from last month.

Blakeman, meanwhile, remains largely unknown to many voters statewide. His favorability rating stands at 21% favorable to 18% unfavorable, while 61% of voters say they either have never heard of him or don’t know enough to form an opinion.

Voters Agree With Both Candidates’ Messages

In one portion of the poll, respondents were presented with six policy statements—three from Hochul and three from Blakeman—without being told which candidate made each remark.

The results showed strong bipartisan agreement with all six statements, with between 71% and 79% of voters agreeing with Hochul’s statements and between 77% and 88% agreeing with Blakeman’s.

The findings suggest that political polarization may be less about policy positions and more about party identity, according to Greenberg.

“Maybe the divisions in our politics are more related to the ideological and media silos that voters place themselves in, rather than the actual words and promises from the candidates,” he said.

Trump Ratings Improve Slightly

The poll also measured opinions of President Donald Trump among New York voters. Trump’s favorability rating rose slightly to 35% favorable and 60% unfavorable, up from 33% favorable and 63% unfavorable in January.

His job approval rating is 36% approve to 61% disapprove, also a modest improvement from the previous poll.

When asked about specific issues, voters gave Trump mixed marks. They were evenly divided on his handling of border security, but his ratings were weaker on other topics, particularly the cost of living. Only 19% of voters rated Trump as doing an excellent or good job lowering costs, while 60% said he had done a poor job.

Immigration and Congressional Preferences

The survey also found 49% of voters support deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally, up from 43% in January, while 29% oppose the idea.

Meanwhile, Democrats continue to hold an advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Fifty-three percent of voters said they would vote for a Democrat for Congress compared with 32% who said they would support a Republican, though that margin has narrowed slightly since January.

About the Poll

The Siena College poll was conducted Feb. 23–26, 2026, among 805 registered New York voters. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.